Have a look at the little blue dot in the lower right-hand corner of the graph above, just above the year 2010. This is below any such reading since at least 1950.
Revkin asked experts about the relation to AGW and apart from the Bejing Met office did not get any positives. But the AO seems poorly understood. Revkin quotes a NOAA scientist as follows:
Michelle L’Heureux, a meteorologist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, told me there’s simply no explanation for what drives such extremes in the Arctic Oscillation, which she described as both a potent driver of northern latitude conditions and one of the least predictable, and understood, patterns in the atmosphere.While federal forecasters have said that the warming influence of a persistent El Niño warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely to be a bigger driver of conditions through the full course of this winter, Joe Romm pointed out that When it’s freezing where you sit, it’s hard to keep in mind that it may be extraordinarily warm elsewhere.
In the comments section, readers have commended the following comment:
How is it possible for scientists to have "simply no explanation for what drives such extremes in the Arctic Oscillation", but at the same time have certainty that "the steep drop at the moment is likely to be transitory rather than a sign of a new trend in the Northern Hemisphere pressure cycle."I wonder what other comments people have.
In other words: "We don't know how to explain this, so we're going to ignore it and stand behind our AGW models."
I would expect true scientists to say, "Wow, this is something we haven't accounted for in our models. I wonder how many other variables we've missed, and how big of an effect they have on seasonal cooling and warming."